Escalating conflict in the Middle East is eroding one of the most critical assumptions underpinning U.S. wholesale distribution: that global supply chains, while occasionally costly, remain fundamentally predictable.
Disruptions to air and ocean trade routes moving through the Persian Gulf and surrounding airspace are rippling far beyond the region, creating uncertainty for distributors whose business models depend on stable transit times, reliable freight capacity and delivery commitments embedded in long-term customer contracts.
At the center of the disruption is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage linking the Persian Gulf to global shipping lanes. One-quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade and about one-fifth of liquefied natural gas shipments pass through the strait each year. While it has not been formally closed, heightened military activity, vessel attacks and official warnings have prompted shipowners to delay transit or avoid the area altogether.
Dozens of crude and LNG tankers have been reported waiting outside the strait as marine insurers cancel or sharply raise war-risk coverage for Gulf transits. Without insurance, many operators are unwilling to proceed, effectively constricting traffic and pushing costs higher across energy and freight markets.
Container shipping has also been affected. Major carriers including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC and CMA CGM have adjusted schedules, reduced calls at Gulf ports and imposed emergency surcharges tied to war risk and rerouting. CMA CGM has introduced surcharges of up to $4,000 per 40-foot container on some affected trade lanes, while Hapag-Lloyd has added war-risk fees as carriers move price uncertainty into customer contracts.
Even modest disruption in the Gulf can have outsized consequences. Ports in the region account for an estimated 3% to 4% of global container volume, but their role as transshipment hubs linking Asia, Europe and Africa make them critical to global liner networks. When vessels skip calls or alter rotations, delays can cascade well beyond the Middle East, disrupting schedules across multiple trade lanes.
Air cargo networks are under similar pressure. Major Gulf aviation hubs — including Dubai International Airport, Abu Dhabi International Airport, Hamad International Airport, Bahrain International Airport and Kuwait International Airport — have faced closures or severe restrictions as airspace controls tightened. At the height of the disruption, commercial traffic over parts of the region dropped sharply, grounding a significant share of air cargo capacity that normally supports time-sensitive shipments moving between Asia, Europe, and North America.
Airlines including Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad Airways and flydubai suspended or limited operations amid security concerns. While some cargo and repatriation flights have resumed, service remains intermittent, complicating planning for freight forwarders and shippers that rely on the Gulf as a transfer point.
Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said prolonged airspace uncertainty could tighten capacity at a time when shippers may attempt to shift cargo modes. “Sustained disruption could reduce available lift, particularly if shippers divert time-sensitive cargo from ocean to air,” Levine said. Such shifts, he added, can put pressure on pricing and lead times across both modes and increase congestion risks as volumes are rerouted to alternative hubs.
For U.S. wholesale distributors, the consequences extend well beyond transportation costs.
Most distributors operate under negotiated contracts with customers that lock in pricing and service expectations. Those agreements assume stable freight conditions. When shipments are delayed, rerouted or hit with unexpected surcharges, distributors face difficult choices: absorb the added costs, seek mid-contract adjustments, or pass increases through selectively to customers.
Delivery promises are also under strain. Many distributors rely on enterprise resource planning systems and ecommerce platforms to automatically generate available-to-promise dates based on historical transit times. When vessels slow, ports are skipped or air routes are constrained, those systems can continue to quote delivery windows that no longer reflect reality, increasing the risk of missed commitments and customer dissatisfaction.
Inventory strategies are being reexamined as well. Lean inventory models designed for efficiency offer limited protection when transit times become volatile. Distributors that diversified suppliers, positioned inventory closer to customers, or built regional redundancy are better positioned to maintain service levels. Those without such buffers face higher backorder risk and greater exposure to service failures.
Digital commerce amplifies the impact. Ecommerce platforms make delays and partial shipments immediately visible to customers, raising the stakes for communication and expectation management. Industry observers say customers are often willing to accept higher prices or longer lead times, but far less tolerant of surprises when delivery promises change after an order is placed.
Chris Blaylock, leader of the manufacturing and distribution team in the Chicago area for Wipfli, said the conflict should prompt distributors to evaluate how exposed they are to Middle East disruptions. Companies need to assess where the war “has any impact on the shipping of their product, and ultimately now the timing of receipt,” Blaylock said.
“There are things they can evaluate, such as whether air freight is a possibility if they need it immediately,” he said, adding that distributors should also examine where their suppliers are located, which routes products take to reach the United States and what alternative suppliers or lanes are available if conditions deteriorate further.
The Middle East disruption highlights how geopolitical risk can destabilize tightly integrated supply chains even without a formal shutdown of critical routes. For wholesale distributors, the lesson is less about a single chokepoint and more about resilience. As global trade becomes increasingly exposed to political and security shocks, distributors built solely for efficiency are finding that efficiency alone is no longer enough.
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