In the Netflix series 3 Body Problem, humans are seen as an existential threat to the Trisolarians, inhabitants of a planet 400 years away that’s subject to the unpredictability of the gravitational forces caused by their three suns. But here’s the kicker: the Trisolarians are actually far more advanced than humans right now. But here’s the problem: Trisolarian knowledge grows linearly due to the aforementioned unpredictability, whereas human knowledge grows exponentially.
By the time the Trisolarians reach Earth, we will have passed them. The predator will be the prey.
To fully illustrate the difference, consider that on a linear trajectory the pattern is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5; whereas on an exponential trajectory the pattern is 1, 2, 4, 8, 16. No difference in the first two numbers, slight difference in the third, but then the gap starts to widen and widen quickly. Sixteen is much bigger than 5, and if you go one more step it’s 32 vs. 6. That trend continues. And what’s true of human knowledge is doubly true of AI. It gets smarter faster.
The Distribution Dilemma: Speed vs. Scale
For distributors, it’s never too late to start using AI. But understand, the longer you wait, the bigger the gap between you and your competitors who adopted early. You may be bigger now, you may have more market share, you may be better than them in every way. But if you’re plodding along and they’re going faster, they’re going to pass you.
I’ve worked for a small distributor and I’ve worked for a large distributor. Here’s how it would have gone when I was with the small distributor:
Me: I want to get some AI-enabled software that will remove friction from the selling process.
Boss: Approved.
Here’s how it would have gone when I was with a large distributor:
Me: I want to get some AI-enabled software that will remove friction from the selling process.
Boss: Sure, just put together a PowerPoint deck to state your case and then if it looks good we’ll fill out the Project Management Office form and then if their steering committee moves it forward we’ll do some financial modeling to make sure the cost/benefit analysis supports it and then we’ll get with our Vendor Management Office to run a thorough and tedious RFQ to find a good vendor, then we’ll get the MNDA and MSA and vet them through InfoSec to ensure they’re SOC 2 Type II compliant and then…
Of course, this is an oversimplification for the small distributor and an overcomplication for the large distributor, but honestly I didn’t miss by much. And that’s the difference between linear and exponential. The fast will beat the big.
The Road Ahead
While the big companies are bogged down in bureaucracy, the agile companies are getting their associates ready for a human/AI collaborative partnership. They’re identifying their pain points, readying their data to optimize their AI-enabled software, piloting the program, failing fast, adjusting, improving, measuring, rinsing and repeating. Once they’ve mastered that, they’ll move on to the next opportunity.
In a few years, the companies that fully adopt and embrace AI will have better inventories, better warehouses, faster quotes to order, sensible but wise credit tolerances, fewer order inaccuracies, better delivery routes, faster deliveries, more accurate invoices and, most importantly, more satisfied and happier customers. And not only will they pass you, the gap between you and them will continue to widen.
Again, it’s never too late to start, but you may already be behind and not even realize it. Competitors in your mirror are much closer than they appear.
For nearly 30 years Mike Doyle has led marketing departments for publicly-traded and privately-held retail and B2B companies like K&G Fashion Superstore (a division of Men's Wearhouse), Floor & Decor, White Cap and Ram Tool. Proficient in both creative and analytical marketing tools, he has seen the evolution of martech from its humble beginnings to its current state of AI-enablement. Mike holds a BA in Mass Communication from St. Bonaventure University and an MS in Marketing from Georgia State University